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Daksha P Trivedi a Clinical Gerontology Unit, University of Cambridge
School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge
CB2 2QQ, b Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit,
University of Oxford Correspondence to: K T
Khaw kk101{at}medschl.cam.ac.uk
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Abstract |
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Objective:
To determine the effect of four monthly
vitamin D supplementation on the rate of fractures in men and women
aged 65 years and over living in the community.
Design:
Randomised double blind controlled trial of 100 000 IU oral vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol)
supplementation or matching placebo every four months over five years.
Setting and participants:
2686 people (2037 men and
649 women) aged 65-85 years living in the general community, recruited
from the British doctors register and a general practice register in Suffolk.
Main outcome measures:
Fracture incidence and total
mortality by cause.
Results:
After five years 268 men and women had
incident fractures, of whom 147 had fractures in common osteoporotic
sites (hip, wrist or forearm, or vertebrae). Relative risks in the
vitamin D group compared with the placebo group were 0.78 (95%
confidence interval 0.61 to 0.99, P=0.04) for any first fracture and
0.67 (0.48 to 0.93, P=0.02) for first hip, wrist or forearm, or
vertebral fracture. 471 participants died. The relative risk for total
mortality in the vitamin D group compared with the placebo group was
0.88 (0.74 to 1.06, P=0.18). Findings were consistent in men and
women and in doctors and the general practice population.
Conclusion:
Four monthly supplementation with
100 000 IU oral vitamin D may prevent fractures without adverse
effects in men and women living in the general community.
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What is already known in this topic
Whether isolated vitamin D supplementation prevents fractures is not clear What this paper adds
Total fracture incidence was reduced by 22% and fractures in major osteoporotic sites by 33% |
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Introduction |
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Osteoporotic fractures are projected to increase exponentially
worldwide.1 Most fracture prevention trials have focused on clinically defined groups such as people with osteoporosis or
previous fractures and have mainly been conducted in
women.2-7 Safe, effective, feasible, and cost effective
primary prevention measures are needed in older men and women, in whom
most osteoporotic fractures occur. We report results from a randomised
double blind trial of four monthly supplementation with oral vitamin
D3 on fractures and mortality in 2686 men and women aged
65-85 years living in the community.
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Methods |
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This trial was a pilot to assess
the feasibility of a community trial (not subsequently conducted owing
to lack of funding) in 20 000 men and women. We recruited men and
women aged 65-85 from the British doctors study register at the
Clinical Trials Studies Unit, Oxford,8 and the age-sex
register of a general practice in Ipswich, Suffolk. We excluded people
who were already taking vitamin D supplements and people with
conditions that were contraindications to vitamin D
supplementation
for example, a history of renal stones, sarcoidosis,
or malignancy. We sent invitations to 11 120 people, and 3504 (31.5%)
of them initially agreed to participate. From June 1996 to March 1997 we randomised 2686 (77.5%) people to receive either treatment with
vitamin D or a placebo. Participants and investigators were blinded to
the treatment until the study ended.
Study design
We conducted the study by post.
Participants completed an initial questionnaire. We assessed prevalence
of disease with the question "Do you have the following
conditions?" followed by a checklist. We used a modified food
frequency questionnaire at four years to estimate dietary calcium intake.
Intervention
We sent one capsule containing 100 000
IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) or matching placebo by post
every four months for five years (15 doses in total). We asked
participants to take the capsule immediately on receipt, complete a
form indicating that they had done so, and return the form by Freepost.
Endpoint ascertainment
On receiving the capsule,
participants filled in a checklist of events (fracture or major
illness) and returned the form by Freepost. All participants were
flagged at the Office for National Statistics for mortality and
followed until 31 March 2002. A nosologist blind to the intervention
coded death certificates by using ICD-9 (international classification
of diseases, 9th revision). We ascertained incidences of fracture,
cardiovascular disease, and cancer by using events identified from
questionnaires or death certification by cause.
Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, parathyroid hormone, and heel
sonometry
After four years we invited 235 participants from
general practice who had taken at least 10 capsules to a clinic for
measurement of serum vitamin D and parathyroid hormone concentrations.
Statistical analyses
We included all participants
randomised to active vitamin D or placebo in the analyses, according to
intention to treat. We compared relative risks for incidence of
fracture, mortality by cause, and incidence of cardiovascular disease
and cancer for active vitamin D versus placebo by using crude rates and
then, after adjustment for age, with the Cox regression
method.9
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Results |
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Baseline descriptive
data did not differ between the groups (see bmj.com). Mean calcium
intake at four years was 742 mg/day and did not differ by treatment allocation.
Incidence of fracture
The table shows five year
fracture rates. Participants in the vitamin D treatment group had a
22% lower rate for first fracture at any site and a 33% lower rate
for a fracture occurring in the hip, wrist or forearm, or vertebrae. The differences were consistent when stratified by sex or by doctor versus general practice population. We observed differences one year
into the study (fig 1).
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The vitamin D group had slightly
but not significantly lower mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer than the placebo group (fig 2). The incidence of
major health events did not differ significantly between the treatment
groups (see bmj.com).
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The mean
serum concentrations of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone and heel bone
ultrasound attenuation in the subgroup are presented on bmj.com. Mean
vitamin D concentrations were 40% higher in the active treatment group
than in the placebo group (p<0.001). Mean parathyroid concentrations
were 6% lower, but this difference was not significant. Heel
ultrasound measures did not differ by treatment. Compliance did not
differ between doctors and the general practice population or between
the treatment groups; 76% (2050/2686) of participants had at least
80% compliance (12/15 doses).
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Discussion |
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Limitations
We ascertained the incidence of fracture through self report by
questionnaire. This may have led to ascertainment errors, but random
errors would underestimate associations. In this randomised double
blinded design, biased ascertainment between the treatment groups is
unlikely. Most of the participants were doctors, which increases the
likelihood of accurate ascertainment of events. Fracture rates did not
differ significantly between doctors and the general practice
population, indicating that people in the general community report
fracture accurately, an assumption supported by several
studies.
10 11
Comparisons with previous studies
Several studies report that daily supplementation with vitamin D
and calcium reduces fractures.
2 3
In our study the effect
size of isolated vitamin D supplementation
about 20% reduction in
total fractures and 30% reduction in fractures at major osteoporotic
sites
is comparable to that reported by Chapuy for combined daily
vitamin D and calcium.2
Previous studies of isolated vitamin D supplementation have been inconclusive.12-14 The lack of significant reduction in fractures in these studies could be explained by a lack of power due to a lower dose of supplement, shorter duration, or lower number of events as well as ineffectiveness of vitamin D. Lips found no protective effect of vitamin D 400 IU daily in 1578 participants.13 This dose may have been too low to achieve a clinical effect. In our study the four monthly 100 000 IU dose averages a daily equivalent similar to the 800 IU vitamin D used in the trials by Chapuy and Dawson Hughes. 2 3 Heikinheimo, using annual injections of 150 000-300 000 IU in 899 participants, reported a reduction in fractures of the upper limb but not the lower limb.14 This study was not properly randomised or blinded, and a single annual dose may not provide adequate concentrations in the blood over a whole year.
Vitamin D may protect against fractures through concentrations of parathyroid hormone. The 40% higher mean concentrations of vitamin D seen in the active treatment group in our trial, however, were still not high in absolute terms. Parathyroid hormone concentrations were only slightly and not significantly lower. This suggests that 100 000 IU vitamin D four monthly may not have lowered parathyroid hormone concentrations adequately, and a more frequent dose might be considered in future trials.
We found no significant effects of vitamin D on total mortality or incidence of cancer or cardiovascular disease, as suggested by observational studies. 15 16 However, the fact that the relative risks were in a favourable direction in the active treatment group is reassuring.
Generalisability
To maximise generalisability, this was a pragmatic trial with
minimal exclusion criteria. The doctors were similar to the general
practice population in terms of compliance, fracture rates, and effects
of vitamin D. Blood concentrations of vitamin D in participants taking
placebo were comparable to those of population groups of similar ages
in northern latitudes in the United States3 and higher
than those in older European populations living in northern
latitudes.
13 17
Public health implications
This trial was a pilot for a larger trial that was not funded and
was, consequently, too small for any decisive effect on fractures to be
expected. The results, nevertheless, indicate that isolated vitamin D
supplementation prevents fractures. The 22% reduction in fractures in
our study translates to approximately 250 people treated for one year
to prevent any fracture. This is particularly important for primary
prevention. Several interventions
such as bisphosphonates, oestrogen,
and calcium and vitamin D
reduce fractures in high risk
groups.2-7 Their application to primary prevention is,
however, problematic as the balance of risk-benefit and cost-benefit
differs in primary and secondary prevention.
Risk of fracture is related to bone health across the whole population distribution, such that most fractures do not occur in the small numbers of people with severe osteoporosis at very high risk but in the large numbers at moderately increased risk. To have a substantial effect on total fractures in the population, intervention would be needed in large numbers of people; consequently, population-wide preventive interventions have been proposed for all elderly people.18
However, the dilemma for primary prevention is that whereas the population attributable risk is large, the absolute individual risk is still low.19 The risk-benefit balance for community based prevention differs from that for intervention in clinically defined groups. Safety, feasibility, and cost effectiveness are crucial. Side effects are less acceptable in a healthy group in which the risk of fracture is not high. This is a particular issue in men, in whom evidence on effective fracture prevention is lacking. Many interventions effective in high risk groups are not feasible in the general population owing to poor compliance or side effects or are not cost effective.20 In contrast, the cost of four monthly oral 100 000 IU vitamin D is minimal (<£1 annually).
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Acknowledgments |
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We thank all the participants in the trial from the British doctors study and the general practice in Ipswich. We also thank A J Hicks and colleagues at the Norwich Road Surgery, Ipswich; G Hanson, Ipswich Hospital NHS Trust Pharmacy Manufacturing Department; Richard Dexter, Pelican Computing, for computing support; Rosemary Reader and Sandra Owen for database assistance; and Sir Richard Peto for advice and access to the British doctors. The 100 000 IU vitamin D supplement or placebo used in this trial was specially prepared by the Ipswich Hospital Pharmacy. Ergocalciferol (physiologically the same action as cholecalciferol) 50 000 IU is obtainable from chemists.
Contributors: See bmj.com
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Footnotes |
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Funding: Start up grant from the Medical Research Council.
Competing interests: None declared.
This is an abridged version; the
full version is on bmj.com
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References |
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(Accepted 10 December 2002)
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