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Estimating the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in the Norwegian HUNT 2 population according to the 2003 European guidelines: modelling study

BMJ 2005; 331 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.38555.648623.8F (Published 08 September 2005) Cite this as: BMJ 2005;331:551
  1. Linn Getz, occupational physician, PhD student (linngetz{at}med.is)32,
  2. Johann A Sigurdsson, professor3,
  3. Irene Hetlevik, associate professor in general practice2,
  4. Anna Luise Kirkengen, post doctoral researcher3,
  5. Solfrid Romundstad, post doctoral researcher4,
  6. Jostein Holmen, professor in community medicine4
  1. 1 Office of Human Resources, Landspitali University Hospital, IS-101 Reykjavik, Iceland
  2. 2 Department of Public Health and General Practice, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7489 Trondheim, Norway
  3. 3 Department of Family Medicine, University of Iceland, Neshagi 16, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland
  4. 4 HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and General Practice, Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7650 Verdal, Norway
  1. Correspondence to: L Getz
  • Accepted 19 July 2005

Abstract

Objective To estimate the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in a well defined Norwegian population according to European guidelines and the systematic coronary risk evaluation system.

Design Modelling study.

Setting Nord-Tröndelag health study 1995-7 (HUNT 2), Norway.

Participants 5548 participants of the Nord-Tröndelag health study 1995-7, aged 40, 50, 55, 60, and 65.

Main outcome measures Distribution of risk categories for cardiovascular disease, with emphasis on the high risk group.

Main results At age 40, 22.5% (95% confidence interval 19.3% to 25.7%) of women and 85.9% (83.2% to 88.6%) of men were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Corresponding numbers at age 50 were 39.5% (35.9% to 43.1%) and 88.7% (86.3% to 91.0%) and at age 65 were 84.0% (80.6% to 87.4%) and 91.6% (88.6% to 94.1%). At age 40, one out of 10 women and no men would be classified at low risk for cardiovascular disease.

Conclusion Implementation of the 2003 European guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice would classify most adult Norwegians at high risk for fatal cardiovascular disease.

Footnotes

  • Contributors IH conceived the study. JAS, LG, and SR carried out the analyses. LG, IH, and ALK wrote the article with assistance from the other authors. IH, JAS, and JH are guarantors.

  • Funding Norwegian University of Science and Technology bioethics research group and the Icelandic Family Physicians Research Fund. Data collection in HUNT 2 was a financial collaboration between the HUNT research centre at the Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, the Nord-Tröndelag County Council, and Levanger hospital.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Ethical approval Surveys in the Nord-Tröndelag health study were approved by the Norwegian data inspectorate and the regional committee for ethics in medical research.

  • Accepted 19 July 2005
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