South Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic may be flattening out
BMJ 2002; 324 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.324.7352.1477/b (Published 22 June 2002) Cite this as: BMJ 2002;324:1477
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The figures for the epidemic (AIDS) is totaly incorrect.Doctors are
urged not to state the cause of death on certificates.In stead ,terms like
pneumonia and natural causes are used.In Botswana,it was stated on the
News(radio)that there is an extreme danger of total extinction of the
population in the country ,due to HIV/AIDS.The South African government is
correct to resist the distribution of anti aids drugs,as the amount of
infected people will drain resources totally.The infected population must
be close on 65% or even higher.In selected communities ,army,mine workers
it would be close to 80%.In my opinion we have passed the point of no
return,and the pandemic WILL run the course ,without being stopped,by what
ever measure taken.
Competing interests: No competing interests
The prevalence of antibodies to HIV is known to be constant. The best
example of this is right here in the USA, where the CDC has estimated a
constant 1 million HIV positive Americans since 1985. They are still
talking about 1 million Americans infected with HIV. What is most telling,
is that the number of Americans the CDC tells us are HIV-positive has
never gone up! What kind of contagious plague is that?
The level of antibodies to HIV among military recruits has remained
constant at very low levels since the armed forces starting testing. Even
the ratio of antibodies to HIV has remained constant among the races. For
example, among Army personnel, blacks have a 9-fold greater prevalence
than whites, and 33-fold greater than Asians. But interestingly, men and
women of the same race show equal likelihood (50:50) of having antibodies
to HIV. These figures have not budged over the years.
Therefore, it comes as no surprise that by continually testing poor
black pregnant women in SA for antibodies to HIV, over a period of time
the numbers will begin to stabilize. Over time, the results for SA will
mirror those in the USA, where the prevalence neither goes up or down. The
stability in the prevalence of antibodies against HIV is just another
embarrassing fact that does not fit with either HIV or AIDS being
contagious.
David Rasnick, PhD
Member of Mbeki's (president of South Africa) AIDS Adivsory Panel
Competing interests: No competing interests
Re: No surprise
Competing interests:
I check facts rather than blindly trusting "authorities".
Competing interests: David Rasnick says:" The prevalence of antibodies to HIV is known to be constant." This is justone more blatant lie pbulished in BMJ Letters by David Rasnick. A simpleMedLine (or PubMed) search at:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?CMD=Limits&DB=PubMedfor "human immunodeficiency seroprevalence survey" turns up 1647 paperswhich have been published on this topic in peer-reviewed medical journals in the last 20 years. Here are a few of those results which directly contradict David Rasnicks claim: Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 1995 Mar;26(1):98-103 Epidemiologic characteristics of blood donors with antibody to human immunodeficiency virus: Thailand.Nuchprayoon C, Tanprasert S, Chumnijarakij T, Thanomchat S, O'Prasert B, Adulwijit S.National Blood Center, Thai Red Cross Society, Bangkok, Thailand."…HIV seropositivity was confirmed in blood donations from first-time male donors in this study during 1988-1992. This rate has increased progressively from 0.87/1,000 in 1988 to 15.95/1,000 in 1992 …"PMID: 8525427Blair JM, Fleming PL, Karon JM.Trends in AIDS incidence and survival among racial/ethnic minority men who have sex with men, United States, 1990-1999.J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2002 Nov 1;31(3):339-47."… Since the introduction of HAART, a combination of factors that include relatively higher infection rates in more recent years and differences in survival following AIDS diagnosis contribute to observed differences in trends in AIDS incidence and deaths among racial/ethnic minority MSM. …"PMID: 12439211Vu MQ, Steketee RW, Valleroy L, Weinstock H, Karon J, Janssen R. HIV incidence in the United States, 1978-1999.J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2002 Oct 1;31(2):188-201. Review."…HIV incidence varied widely (0.002-19.8 per 100 person-years [py]) depending on risk group. Among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV incidence peaked in the early 1980s (5-20/100 py) and then declined but remained high during the 1990s (2-4/100 py). Among injection drug users (IDUs), incidence decreased since the mid-1980s but differed by geographic area; in the 1990s, incidence remained high in the East (1-3/100 py) but was lower in the West (